Gallium sits at the top of a much larger exposure
Statistics Netherlands (CBS) published a new critical-materials assessment on 29 October, ranking gallium as the highest-risk material for the Dutch economy when economic importance, supply vulnerability and expected demand growth are combined. Seven of the eight most critical materials are processed predominantly in China: gallium, rare earths, germanium, natural graphite, lithium, cobalt and silicon metal. Niobium, associated mainly with Brazil, is the exception.
This is more specific than the claim that the Netherlands buys many goods from China. The exposure exists at the processing stage, which may be several suppliers removed from the Dutch company receiving a finished component. A Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker can buy from a European intermediary while still depending indirectly on Chinese refining capacity. Supply-chain mapping must therefore go beyond the country on the invoice.
The import totals require careful interpretation
CBS reports that in 2025 the Netherlands imported €17.2 billion of critical materials and €123.9 billion of products containing them from outside the EU. Together these categories represent almost a third of the value of imports from non-EU countries. These are values of goods classified as containing relevant materials, not the market value of the mineral content alone. Adding them without explaining that methodology would greatly overstate the cost of the raw materials themselves.
The Netherlands is also a trading and distribution hub. CBS's value-chain work shows that a large proportion of imported critical materials is re-exported, sometimes without significant processing in the country. That complicates any simple conclusion about direct domestic consumption. It does not eliminate risk: disruption can hit logistics, re-export customers, equipment makers and industrial users in different ways.
Why semiconductors and defence are especially exposed
Gallium and germanium are used in specialist electronics, while rare earths, cobalt and graphite have roles in magnets, batteries, defence systems and other industrial products. CBS gives gallium a combined criticality score of 9.7 in its published ranking, reflecting high economic impact, supply risk and future demand. This is a comparative research score, not a forecast of a 97% supply interruption.
For the Brainport ecosystem and other advanced-manufacturing clusters, the commercial issue is whether companies can qualify alternative materials or suppliers without compromising product performance. Building a second source is slower when a material is embedded in a certified component. Inventories can bridge short interruptions, but they cannot replace long-term refining or manufacturing capacity.
The right response is deeper mapping, not headline stockpiling
CBS cautions that import statistics based on countries of consignment can hide earlier stages of production. A product delivered from Germany may contain inputs processed in China. The agency's latest report therefore makes a strong case for tracing critical inputs through intermediate suppliers and for separating physical shortages from price shocks and political export controls.
Companies should identify their highest-risk materials, check actual dependence on individual refiners, review substitution and recycling options, and test how long production could continue after a supply disruption. For policymakers, the important measures are qualified alternative capacity and resilient industrial supply chains, not simply the gross value of goods entering Rotterdam. The new CBS research makes that distinction unusually clear.
The report measures exposure, not a prediction of shortages
CBS's criticality ranking combines economic significance, the probability of supply disruption and expected demand growth. It does not say that a shortage will necessarily occur next month or that all eight materials are interchangeable in industrial use. Some materials have small physical volumes but outsized importance in high-value components; others move through enormous trade flows. A risk-weighted ranking is designed to identify vulnerability, not forecast the date of a shock.
For Dutch companies, this creates a prioritisation problem. The most expensive import is not necessarily the most dangerous single point of failure. Procurement teams may need to invest in tracing small but irreplaceable inputs while leaving more easily substituted bulk commodities on ordinary purchasing cycles. CBS's treatment of embedded materials helps explain why a purely value-based sourcing dashboard could miss that risk.